Once again for the fourth or fifth time over several decades, nuclear weapons disarmament talks between North Korea and the US have broken down as of May 25. Those who had high hopes for the Summit are shocked, while skeptics are saying they told you so.
Others are calling the failure a major blunder, while others call it brilliant. But wait, now Trump says the talks are back on. Maybe. Maybe not.
No one knows the inside reasons for why the talks failed and are being revived. We’ll have to wait a few days until someone in the Donald Trump White House, State Department, Defense Department or Intelligence agencies leaks the reasons to the mass media.
Trump implies that the June 12 talks are likely to occur. In the meantime, fake news and wild speculation are flooding the mainstream and social media.
Here’s my take on the situation…
Lead Up to the Summit
Several significant events have occurred in the past few days leading up to the June 12 Summit in Singapore that are sending mixed signals from Kim and Trump.
Good: On May 9, North Korea released three US hostages being held for months in prison as a gesture of good will ahead of the Summit.
Bad: Beginning on May 11, the US and South Korea held an air power exercise, in spite of the North’s protests. North Korea responded by cancelling the scheduled meeting between North and South that had been intended to work out more details for the June 12 Summit and items agreed to in the historic meeting between the two on May 16.
Kim could not allow the US and South Korea to push him around. Also, the Trump does not want to convey any weakness to Kim by giving in. Trump believes that past US presidents failed in their agreements because they gave away too much.
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Very Bad: Newly-appointed National Security Advisor John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence made statements that antagonized the North. Bolton remarked on May 16 that he thought that the denuclearization of North Korea might work like the disarmament of the Libyan Dictator Muammar Gaddafi initiative in 2003.
Gaddafi disarmed without much resistance and became more responsible in his behavior. But a coalition force lead by the US bombed Libya, driving Gaddafi from power and eventually leading to his death at the hands of rebels in October 2011. President Barack Obama has said that this was his greatest mistake and regret as president.
Kim was not amused, as he considers any effort at regime change to be unacceptable. Bolton should have immediately clarified that he was not proposing regime change in North Korea. Bolton has for years proposed regime change, and even war, as the only solution to North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
Bad: Mike Pence said on May 21, in an interview with Foxnews, that if North Korea doesn’t denuclearize, then, as John Bolton had said earlier "this will only end like the Libya Model."
Very Bad: The North Korean Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs immediately called Pence a "political dummy," and threatened an attack against the US: "We can also make the US taste the appalling tragedy it has neither experienced nor even imagined up to now."
No one knows what the real purpose of these aggressive statements might have been. But, the comment about Pence seems to have infuriated some in the White House. But Trump publically rejected the Libya Model comment by Bolton and Pence.
Good: At the same time as this "trash talk" was going on, newly-appointed Secretary of State Pompeo was meeting with North Koreans on the specifics of the June Summit. Pompeo’s comments on the meeting were very diplomatic and positive.
Bad: Later on May 24, Pompeo reported that North Korea had not responded to repeated requests to work out the logistics for the Singapore Summit. North Korean and US representatives were supposed to meet in Singapore to finalize the Summit arrangements. The US showed up, the North Koreans did not.
Good, then Very Bad: On May 24 just before Trump cancelled the Summit, Kim announced that he had dismantled his nuclear weapons underground testing facility as part of detente with the US, South Korea and Japan.
Skeptics point out that there is no hard evidence that this was accomplished. Further, this facility experienced a massive cave in due to an earth quake likely caused by testing nuclear warheads. So, Kim really wasn’t destroying the site as part of a peace making gesture.
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Trump Cancels Summit
Thursday, May 24, Trump suddenly cancelled the upcoming Summit. Trump sent a letter to Kim announcing, "Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement [about Pence and Libya], I feel it is inappropriate, at this time…" Trump then threatened North Korea with nuclear weapons.
Perhaps the only good news in Trump’s response is that he is willing to talk in the future.
What to Make of This
Opinions on the Summit’s collapse are many, varied and unverified, as is the talk of going ahead with the Summit.
One scenario is that Kim never was going to agree to denuclearization. So, Kim put on a "show of cooperation" with South Korea where he appeared to agree to terms proposed by the South and US. Kim’s demeanor at the North/South Summit drew rave reviews from the global mass media.
Kim’s sister in attending the Winter Olympics and the North/South Summit even became a "media darling." Having gained global good will, Kim was positioned to blame the Summit failure on Trump. Bolton and Pence inadvertently made Kim’s rouse look even better. Trump then pulled out of the Summit to beat Kim "to the punch."
Another scenario is that Kim was going to denuclearize but the Trump administration quashed quashed the Summit because of the North’s comments. This seems unlikely.
Photo: Quartz
Kim had much to gain from denuclearization, and a couple of "numbskull" advisor comments should not have been enough to unravel that. Because the North and US are always trading insults, this could be fake outrage on Trump’s part, and Kim’s.
Or, also likely, perhaps Kim really was afraid of the Bolton Libya Model comments. In any case, when North Korea avoided discussing the Summit’s logistics, perhaps Trump decided to cancel the Summit before Kim did.
Still another scenario is that many in the Trump administration senior advisors (but perhaps not Trump himself) did not want the Summit to succeed, or expected it not to succeed. Their deep distrust of Kim prevented any agreement. They did not believe they could rid nuclear weapons from the North no matter what, hence the Bolton and Pence comments.
Many Republicans and Democrats also began fearing that Trump might give away too much to Kim at the Summit. Trump claims to be a great negotiator but he often is not.
During this time some began to talk about a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump, which may have increased concerns that he would give away too much to Kim in exchange for the Prize. Pulling out of the Summit prevented Trump’s folly.
And yet another scenario is that Trump never really intended to seriously negotiate with Kim, believing that Kim would never agree to US terms. Also, perhaps Trump believes that China is guiding Kim’s behavior—alternating between charm and aggression—in order to continue to foster turmoil in the region.
Trump undoubtedly recalls that Kim made a visit to China to meet with President XI Jinping just before and after the North/South Summit on April 27.
The US just cancelled joint naval exercises with China in the East Sea. Bolton is now working on Trump’s trade policy with China, perhaps, according to CNBC to create "a little shock therapy."
A final scenario is that Trump was playing games with Kim to see how he would react. The North initially aggressively reacted then calmed down. Trump immediately held out the olive branch to restart the Summit.
There is now a real possibility that the Summit might occur on June 12 or at least later.
Trump send the US team to Singapore to prepare just in case the Summit is put back on track. In the meantime, Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met at the demilitarized zone presumably to figure out how to get the negotiations back on tract. Moon seems to have been effectively acting as an intermediary between the US and the North.
The latest: Moon reports that the negotiations could still happen on June 12 as planned!